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South Korea has been experiencing subzero temperatures lately - but for its politicians it has been decidedly hot under the collar. Unprecedented grassroots activism by civic groups has sent political circles reeling from shock. The latest action came on Jan. 30, when some 1,000 activists from various non-governmental organizations gathered in downtown Seoul to demand political reform. As they marched toward Myongdong Cathedral, long the symbol of Korea's pro-democracy struggle, the protesters waved placards and chanted anti-corruption slogans, pledging to "defeat corrupt politicians, old politics" and "eradicate the disease of regionalism." "We vow to achieve a new political landscape that is clean," said Park Won Soon, chairman of an NGO called the People's Solidarity for Participatory Democracy. Similar rallies were held concurrently in other major cities around the country.

The nationwide demonstrations were the culmination of a tumultuous 10 days that followed the formation of President Kim Dae Jung's new political party, the Millennium Democratic Party. For Kim, the MDP was the fruit of a long-cherished project to build a progressive, reformist "super-party" that would replace his National Congress for New Politics, under whose banner he had won the presidency. Formally launched on Jan. 20 amid much pomp and fanfare, the MDP was hailed by its founders as ushering in a new era of political reform, economic well-being and peace in the peninsula.

Kim's thunder, however, was quickly stolen by civic groups. Ten days earlier, one organization had caused a stir by releasing a list of 164 allegedly corrupt politicians. On Jan. 24, the Citizens' Coalition for the General Elections (CCGE), the umbrella group of over 450 NGOs that was behind the Jan. 30 rallies, followed up with a more refined list of 66 lawmakers it deemed unfit to run in the upcoming general elections. The blacklist included 16 legislators from the MDP; 16 from its coalition partner, the United Liberal Democrats (ULD); and 30 from the opposition Grand National Party (GNP). The most prominent inclusion was ULD founder and recently resigned prime minister Kim Jong Pil, who was cited for corruption and for his role in the 1961 military coup that brought strongman Park Chung Hee to power. Other names included National Assembly speaker Park Jyun Kyu and GNP legislator Kim Yoon Hwan, a figure associated with past military rule.

The objectivity of the selection procedure aside, the list was an instant hit with a public tired of politics as usual. In opinion polls, as many as 80% of those surveyed supported the CCGE's move and said they would not vote for those on the list in the April 13 polls. Lawmakers - especially those from the ULD and the GNP - were naturally less exhilarated. Labeling it "political terrorism," those targeted by the blacklist threatened to sue the NGOs for defamation. Many complained that such lists violated an electoral law that prevents non-political groups from getting involved in election campaigns. But the sheer outpouring of public support for the CCGE overwhelmed any such objections, and legislators eventually agreed to amend the law.

One casualty of the blacklist has been relations between Kim Dae Jung and Kim Jong Pil (popularly referred to as "DJ" and "JP" respectively). The two partners were strange bedfellows to begin with: JP is politically more conservative than the president and was once part of the military-led regime that persecuted DJ during his dissident days in the 1970s. Throughout their partnership, they locked horns over relations with North Korea (JP is a hawk) and whether to introduce a cabinet-style government (JP's pet project). Now the suspicion among ULD members is that the government is trying to dispense with its weaker, ideologically incompatible partner. They accuse President Kim of secretly putting the civic groups up to the job in order to undermine his political opponents, including the ULD. "Many of the NGO activists involved in the CCGE were working closely with the various campaigns that the government had set up," says ULD spokesman Lee Yang Woo.

The presidential Blue House denies the charges. But suspicions have not been dispelled by the fact that the MDP was curiously mute in its response to the blacklist; the party gave a guarded welcome to the list and promised to take it into account when nominating candidates for the elections. Also, not a few noted that President Kim's recent remarks on political reform were eerily similar to the slogans of NGO activists in the streets. During the MDP's inauguration, he stated: "Politics is too unproductive and has betrayed the people. It has caused total distrust and invited denunciation." Most tellingly, Kim recently said NGOs could "violate laws in the best interest of the nation," practically giving them a carte blanche to act.

But if DJ is in league with the civic groups, he has not been getting the same kind of goodwill the latter has been reaping. Early public response to his new party has been lukewarm at best. Many Koreans are turned off by DJ's habit of forming new parties to suit the political needs of the moment: Over the past decade, he has started up no fewer than six. "He forms political parties as his supporters change their shirts," sneers Kwon Chul Hyun, a member of the GNP.

The launching of the MDP is seen as a reflection of Kim's shift to the political left. Portrayed by past military rulers as a dangerous pro-North leftist, Kim had to counter that image when running for president in 1997, even allying himself with arch-conservative Kim Jong Pil. But now that his position is reasonably secure, DJ may be trying to return to his center-left roots. "This time," says Lee Ki Taek, a political-science professor at Yonsei University, "his intention seems to be to bring into mainstream politics many of his old progressive supporters." Former NGO activist Suh Young Hoon, for example, was made the MDP's acting president, while progressive academic Kim Sung Jae was given the key government position of senior secretary for policy planning.

In the process, DJ may be trying to hold on to the left-leaning segment of society that has traditionally been the bedrock of his support. The labor unions have long been his staunchest backers, but in recent years they have been alienated by his economic reforms and the painful restructuring measures. Deciding their agenda would be better served by their own party, the unions on Jan. 30 launched the Democratic Labor Party, with longtime labor activist Kwon Young Gil as its head. Analysts say the party could draw a substantial number of votes away from the MDP in such cities as Seoul, Inchon and Ulsan, which have strong blue-collar representation.

Kim's political shift may be a sign that he wants to focus on matters close to his heart - a more equitable distribution of wealth and greater dialogue with the North, with a view toward eventual reunification - but the move is not without dangers. For all the noise generated by progressives and radicals, says the GNP's Kwon, Korean voters remain fundamentally conservative. Thus, Kim's reputation as a leftist - justified or not - may yet come back to haunt him. "He is going back to find his progressive roots, and he cannot fool the people," says Kwon. According to a recent poll by the Chosun Ilbo newspaper, the ruling party's popularity has dropped from a high of 41.2% two years ago to 21%.

The drop in approval ratings may have more to do with the economic hardship suffered by the people than any political turnaround by the president. Yet the irony is that today the economy is in the best shape it has been since the beginning of the financial crisis in 1997. The chaebol - the often inefficient business behemoths widely blamed for triggering the crisis - are fewer in number today than three years ago. The country has amassed a foreign-exchange reserve of nearly $73 billion, up from a meager $7 billion in 1997. The GDP jumped nearly 10% in 1999 and is forecast to grow another 7% this year. Inflation remains at a record low of 1.5%.

In view of DJ's flagging popularity, it is vital for the MDP to win a mandate in the April 13 elections if he is not to end his term as a lameduck president. But this won't be easy. Kim has near-fanatical support in the Cholla provinces in the southwest, but his grip elsewhere is shakier. Historically, he has never been able to win much support in the densely populated southeast - the two Kyongsang provinces and the cities of Taegu and Pusan - which is the power base of the GNP. The central Chungchong provinces are dominated by Kim Jong Pil and the ULD.

Thus, the real battle for domination will likely take place in Seoul, Inchon and the neighboring Kyonggi province, which account for 106 of the 227 seats in the National Assembly and which are less swayed by regional sentiments. In the last polls, the GNP performed best in this area, winning more than half the seats on offer. "We will do even better this time in these crucial regions than we did in 1996," says GNP head Lee Hoi Chang. His confidence is based on the fact that the GNP has won every single by-election that has been held in the region since then.

But the GNP's chances could be jeopardized by the NGOs' actions. Any change in voting patterns arising from the political-reform movement is likely to benefit the MDP. One GDP official has expressed concern that voters might overwhelmingly choose independent candidates - who might then be coopted by DJ. To help ensure that does not happen, Kim's opponents are likely to harp on his move to the political left and bring up his supposed pro-North sympathies.

The big question now is what kind of impact the NGO revolt will have, on the elections and on the future. Will the public disgust with politics as usual - as revealed so spectacularly by the blacklisting campaign - overcome the Koreans' latent conservative streak in the polls? Will more voters opt for political reform than for regional ties? And, in the longer run, will the politicians be persuaded to clean up their act? Should all the answers be yes, then people power will have truly arrived in South Korea.